The future is bright (if you know what to look for)
What a terrible year behind us, right? Well, it depends on what you're looking at.
Don't believe me? Here's a few highlights from the past year courtesy of the ridiculously amazing people at Future Crunch). Please consider subscribing to their amazing newsletter to receive weekly free updates on real trends from around the world!
The below are just a few of my favorite trends from 2023. These are not feel good stories. These are actual measured trends. If all the positivity below is too much you're welcome to go back to watching daily news and scrolling through facebook posts.
Of course there are problems around the world. This post is not about making less of people's suffering and lord knows when you're in the shit it is difficult to be positive, but I hope that while reading the below you're reminded that despite all the stupidity a few of us are capable of, there is huge amount of amazing individuals who are working very hard across the world to make this big crazy beautiful world a better place to live in.
Here's to all the heroes behind the scenes who are responsible for the trends and facts below!
Ready to smile? Grab a cup of nice hot chocolate and let's start!
Europe knocked years off its decarbonization timeline. Coal generation in Europe plummeted in 2023, leading to fossil fuels' share of electricity generation falling to a record low of 17% in the first half of the year, while solar installations increased by 40% for the third year in a row. The continent has also managed to kick its addiction to Russian fossil fuels, phasing out coal imports, reducing oil imports by 90% and reducing fossil gas imports from 155 billion cubic meters in 2021 to an estimated 45 billion cubic meters in 2023.
A record number of countries eliminated diseases this year. Egypt became the first country to eliminate hepatitis C, (which is crazy given that it used to have the highest burden in the world), the Maldives became the first country to eliminate leprosy, Bangladesh became the first country to eliminate black fever, and also eliminated elephantiasis, Niger became the first African country to eliminate river blindness, Benin, Mali and Iraq eliminated trachoma, Timor-Leste, Bhutan, and North Korea eliminated rubella, Ghana eliminated sleeping sickness, and Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and Belize eliminated malaria.
Malaria vaccines started arriving in Africa. A malaria vaccine is the holy grail of global health. We've been trying to create one for over 70 years, and now we are about to unleash not one but two of them against a disease that infects 247 million people and kills half a million children every year. That’s more than 1,000 deaths of children every day.
Breakthroughs on new medicines. Two powerful new drugs, Donanemab and Lecanemab, heralded a turning point in the fight against Alzheimer’s, the decades-long campaign to make insulin less expensive scored a major victory when the world's three biggest manufacturers lowered their prices, a new meningitis vaccine raised hopes for a disease that kills about 250,000 people a year, and Australia became the first country in the world to classify psychedelics as medicines, approving their use to treat some mental health conditions.
Solar installations changed our climate future. The world's solar capacity has doubled in the last 18 months, an solar is now the fastest-growing energy technology in history. In September, the IEA announced that solar photovoltaic installations are now ahead of the trajectory required to reach net zero by 2050, and that if solar maintains this kind of growth, it will become the world's dominant source of energy before the end of this decade. And to top it up, China's carbon emissions are likely to start falling next year.This, and not COP28, was the most important climate change story of the year, because China is the world's largest carbon polluter, and was supposed to still be six years away from peak emissions. The reason for this epochal shift? The country's unprecedented buildout of 300 GW of solar and wind in 2023, almost double its 2022 total. It's the largest ever single year deployment of energy in our species' history. “There’s nothing you can benchmark this against."
A green manufacturing boom in the USA. The Inflation Reduction Act is the single largest commitment any government has yet made to vie for leadership in the next energy economy, and has resulted in the largest manufacturing drive in the United States since WW2.
Hold on. Just finished my hot chocolate. This list is toooo good to stop now. Let me get another cup...
Right... where were we? Ah. Yes. You wanted more things to give you perspective!
No signs of an eletric vehicle slowdown. Global electric vehicle sales increased by 36% this year, bringing the world's total to 41 million electric vehicles. The shift is remarkable: just two years ago, one in 25 cars sold globally was an electric vehicle. This year it will be one in five, and by 2025, one in two. The IEA now says that electric vehicle sales, like solar installations, are tracking ahead of its net zero scenarios. In the United States, where the media spent much of the year insisting there's been a slowdown, sales were up 50%, and growth in China was even more explosive; two in every five new cars sold was electric, and gasoline demand peaked two years earlier than expected. I personally have an issue with just replacing cars with other cars, even if slightly greener, but it is still positive news.
Battery technology made some big leaps forward. CATL, the world's biggest battery maker, announced a new battery with double the density of Tesla's batteries which it said would go into mass production imminently, Toyota, the world's largest carmaker, claimed it had developed a solid state battery with over 1,000 km of range (and then got trumped by Chinese EV maker NIO which pulled off an actual demo of 1,000 km battery) and Swedish manufacturer Northvolt announced a breakthrough in sodium batteries, an element that's cheaper, more abundant, and more sustainable than lithium.
We found plenty of raw materials for the transition. After years of hand-wringing about the lack of critical materials, this year saw the discovery of huge new deposits of lithium in the United States and phosphate in Norway, a plunge in lithium and cobalt prices as new mines and processing plants solved shortages sooner than expected, and multiple studies showing that the world has more than enough materials for the clean energy transition. Reaching net zero will only take one quarter of today’s lithium, one-third of nickel and a quarter of known cobalt resources.
America and Europe got serious about transmission. In one of the most important, and least appreciated energy stories of the year, the US government approved major reforms governing new connections to the nation’s grids, broke ground on thousands of kilometres of high voltage power lines, and made its largest transmission investment ever into 58 projects across 44 states. Regulators in Europe also got the memo - the European Commission drafted plans to scale up investment into Europe's power grids, giving special status to at least 68 projects, with access to faster permits and funding.
Europe and America got serious about methane. Methane is the second-biggest cause of climate change after carbon dioxide, so it was really good news when, towards the end of the year, the EU launched a continent-wide tax on carbon in imported goods, the first time such a tax has been tried at this scale anywhere in the world, and then reached a deal on a law to place methane emissions limits on oil and gas imports starting in 2030. Even better, just before COP28, the United Stated implemented the most protective methane pollution limits in the world.
Finance fled from coal, gas and oil. Over three quarters of coal-fired electricity in the OECD is now on track to close by 2030, and the IEA's estimates for fossil gas deployment have halved in the last five years.
The outlook for shipping and steel improved. Last year saw a record 59% of new ships ordered capable of using clean fuels, this year the global shipping industry agreed to cut total annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 70% by 2040 and in October, the world's biggest shipping company, Maersk, unveiled its first container ship powered by green methanol. Meanwhile, massive investments into steel decarbonization were announced in Sweden, the United States, and Japan, 43% of planned steelmaking capacity globally is now slated to use electric-arc furnaces, and the UK, India, Canada, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and UAE established the Industrial Deep Decarbonization Initiative which requires governments to commit to procure low-emission steel, cement and concrete.
Omph... I need a coffee! All this fact-based positivity is getting to me.
Ok. Let's continue!
Global poverty reduction is back on track. After the setbacks of the pandemic, the World Bank said that a majority of low and middle income countries will see poverty decline in 2023, and more than half will reach a lower poverty rate than in 2019. The two standouts are India, which has lifted hundreds of millions of people out poverty in the last two decades, and Indonesia, which has reduced its share of people living on less than $3.20 a day from 61% in 2002 to 16% in 2022.
Suicide rates are falling. Over the past three decades, global suicide rates have fallen by more than a third, thanks primarily to rising living standards in the two most populous countries in the world. In this century, suicide rates have fallen by a third in India and by more than half in China.
Crime plummeted in the United States. Initial data suggests that murder rates for 2023 are down by almost 13%, one of the largest ever annual declines, and every major category of crime except auto theft has declined too, with violent crime falling to one of the lowest rates in more than 50 years and property crime falling to its lowest level since the 1960s. Also, the country's prison population is now 25% lower than its peak in 2009.
The world moved closer to a fairer international tax system. In 2015, the equivalent of 9% of global GDP was held in tax havens. Today, thanks to the automatic exchange of bank information, this is down to around 3%.
Progress on water, sanitation and hygiene. In July, the WHO released new data on access to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene, highlighting one of the least known success stories in global development. Between 2000 and 2022, 2.1 billion people have gained access to safe drinking water, 2.5 billion have gained access to safely managed sanitation, the number of people using unimproved facilities has been halved, from 1.1 billion to 545 million, and the number practising open defecation has fallen by more than two thirds, from 1.3 billion to 419 million.
Some good news for LGBTQ rights. Estonia became the 35th country to legalize same-sex marriage, Thailand’s Cabinet approved an amendment to its civil code to allow same-sex marriage, a Peruvian high court ordered same-sex unions to be legally registered, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Romania and Bulgaria were required to protect the rights of same-sex couples to family life, Taiwan granted full adoption rights to same sex couples, a court in South Korea ruled that denying benefits to same-sex couples was discriminatory, and Hong Kong's top court ordered the government to legally recognise same-sex relationships.
The United States pulled off an economic miracle. In 2022 economists predicted with 100% certainty that the US was going to enter a recession within a year. It didn't happen. GDP growth is now the fastest of all advanced economies, 14 million jobs have been created under the current administration, unemployment is at its lowest since WW2, and new business formation rates are at record highs. Inflation is almost back down to pre-pandemic levels, wages are above pre-pandemic levels (accounting for inflation), and more than a third of the rise in economic inequality between 1979 and 2019 has been reversed. Average wealth has climbed by over $50,000 per household since 2020, and doubled for Americans aged 18-34, home ownership for GenZ is higher than it was for Millennials and GenX at this point in their lives, and the annual deficit is trillions of dollars lower than it was in 2020. Everyone's still pissed off though.
Most places in the world are safer than they used to be. The World Bank released its latest data on the global homicide rate. Over the past twenty years, the global homicide rate has decreased by 17%, from 6.99 per 100,000 people in 2001 to 5.79 per 100,000 in 2021, the most recent year with global statistics. Over this time period murders in Africa have decreased by 7%, in North and South America by 8%, in Asia by 29% and in Europe, by an astonishing 72%.
The greatest conservation victory of all time. In March this year, 193 countries reached a landmark deal to protect the world's oceans, in what Greenpeace called "the greatest conservation victory of all time." The UN High Seas Treaty is the first international agreement on ocean protection since 1982, providing for the common governance of half the Earth’s surface, and paving the way for conservation on the high seas, with the aim of protecting at least 30% of the planet by 2030. Only about 1% of the high seas is currently protected.
One of the largest ever declines in deforestation. Yes. REALLY. In 2023 deforestation across the nine Amazonian countries was 55.8% lower than last year, in a major turnaround for a region that's vital to curbing climate change. Brazil's deforestation rate fell by over 50%, the largest single year decline since records began, and over a million hectares of forest were protected across South America, including the Cuchilla del San Juan Reserve, linking together two of the world’s greatest biodiversity hotspots, and the Camino del Jaguar Reserve, part of a global biodiversity hotspot that extends from Panama to northern Peru.
Tree planting and reforestation efforts continued. Indonesia said it would restore close to half a million acres of palm oil plantations, Kenya celebrated its first national tree planting holiday, Algeria started a project to reforest a million hectares, 6,000 acres were re-greened in West Bengal, India, Mali kicked off a program to reforest 400,000 hectares, Fiji said it has planted over 18 million trees since 2019, and Malawi said it has restored about 1.7 million hectares since 2015. Also, in July a new report showed that small-scale restoration efforts across Africa have contributed to the greening of around 400,000 km2, an area the size of Zimbabwe.
There's less plastic than we think in the sea. In August, Dutch researchers released a report that looked at over 20,000 measurements worldwide, and found the extent of plastic soup in the world's oceans is closer to 3.2 million tons, far smaller than the commonly accepted estimates of 50-300 million tons. The following month, Japanese scientists discovered a plastic-eating bacteria that could help solve global waste, and the EU announced further plans to crack down on microplastics with the aim of cutting plastic pellet pollution by 74% by the end of the decade.
The largest ever commitment to water conservation. In March, 10,000 participants at the UN Water Conference pledged billions of dollars and made over 700 commitments to ensure a water secure future. The biggest commitment of all was the Freshwater Challenge, an incredibly ambitious project to restore the world's waterways. Driven by Colombia, the DRC, Ecuador, Gabon, Mexico and Zambia, the project aims to restore 300,000 kilometres of rivers and 350 million hectares of wetlands (an area larger than India) by 2030.
Over 100 countries now have plastic bans. This year, New Zealand became the first country to ban plastic bags for loose fruit and vegetables, England banned plastic cutlery, balloon sticks and polystyrene cups, Jamaica said that its three year old plastic ban has largely eliminated plastic straws and bags and styrofoam boxes and cups, the United States announced a phaseout of single-use plastics across all its public lands, and the UAE said it would ban single-use plastic shopping bags starting in January 2024. “It’s really, really encouraging to see those numbers trending down."
Endangered species that are recovering. African lion / African elephant / American alligator / American bison / Asiatic lion / Atlantic puffin / Azores bullfinch / Bald eagle / Bali myna / Black rhino / Black-footed ferret / Black-veined moth / Blue whale / Bornean orangutan / Chinese sturgeon / Darwin’s flycatcher / East Pacific green sea turtle / Eastern barred bandicoot / Eurasian brown bear / Eurasian beaver / Eurasian wolf / Fender’s blue butterfly / Galapagos giant tortoise / Golden eagle / Golden lion tamarin / Greater bilby / Hargila stork / Humpback whale / Iberian lynx / Jaguar / Kaempfer’s woodpecker / Kipunji monkey / Large heath butterfly / Mexican wolf / Monarch butterfly / Mountain gorilla / Olive ridley sea turtle / Peregrine falcon / Polynesian tree snail / Red squirrel / Saiga antelope / Saimaa ringed seal / Sea otter / Siamese crocodile / Snow leopard / Sooty albatross / Southern right whale / Stocky galaxias fish / Takahē / Three-banded armadillo / Tibetan antelope / Tibetan red deer / Tibetan white-lipped deer / Tiger / White rhino / Wood stork / Whooper swans / Yunnan golden hair monkey / Zebra shark.
I know the above won't solve your problems....
There's tons more of these trends! If you made it all the way down here and you're hungry for more go to https://futurecrunch.com/goodnews/ and follow them. It is our way of supporting the amazing team there who is doing so much to remind us that there is a lot of positive news happening.
I know the above will not solve all your troubles but I hope it brings you a bit of positivity in your life.
Big hug to everyone from a cold wintery night sitting outside a local cafe' in #Istanbul waiting for the cat to stop thinking of my keyboard as a butt warmer.
